Britain faces a potentially more deadly second wave of Covid-19 in the coming winter that could kill up to 120,000 people over nine months in a worst-case scenario, health experts said on Tuesday (July 14).
With Covid-19 more likely to spread in winter as people spend more time together in enclosed spaces, a second wave of the pandemic “could be more serious than the one we’ve just been through,” said Stephen Holgate, a professor and co-lead author of a report by Britain’s Academy of Medical Sciences (AMS).
“This is not a prediction, but it is a possibility,” Holgate told an online briefing. “Deaths could be higher with a new wave of Covid-19 this winter, but the risk of this happening could be reduced if we take action immediately.”
The UK’s current death toll from confirmed cases of Covid-19 is around 45,000, the highest in Europe. Including suspected cases, more than 55,000 people have died.
The AMS said there is a “high degree of uncertainty” about how the UK’s Covid-19 epidemic will evolve, but outlined a “reasonable worst-case scenario” where the reproduction number or R-value rises to 1.7 from September 2020 onwards.
The R-value the average number of people an infected person will pass a disease on to is currently between 0.7 and 0.9 in the UK and daily case and death numbers are falling. An R-value above one can lead to exponential growth.
“The modelling estimates 119,900 hospital deaths between September 2020 and June 2021,” the AMS report said, more than double the number that occurred during the first wave.
AMS vice president Anne Johnson said a bad winter flu season, combined with large backlog of patients suffering other diseases and chronic conditions, would add to huge pressure on health services — underlining a need to prepare now.
“Covid-19 has not gone away,” she said. “We need to do everything we can to stay healthy this winter.”
RPS responds to AMS report
Responding to the report from the AMS, president of the Royal Pharmaceutical Society Sandra Gidley said: “This new report underlines why pharmacy must be at the heart of preparations for a potential second wave of Covid-19.
“If the Government is to achieve its ambition for the ‘biggest flu vaccine programme in history’, it must involve pharmacy across Great Britain in delivering it. Pharmacies can also support the rollout of antibody testing to establish what proportion of the population has been infected with the virus.
“Decisions are urgently needed on how we continue supporting shielded patients in the event of a second wave, such as through a medicines delivery service, which is due to end this month.”
Preparations must also consider how patients with Covid-19 are referred between care settings, how procedures might need to change so pharmacists can keep looking after patients safely, and how this will be funded, Gidley pointed out.
“Whether it’s flu vaccinations, dealing with local lockdowns or planning for a potential second wave, the sooner we get decisions from government and the NHS, the more time pharmacy teams and the health service will have to prepare.
“For all this to be provided safely, health and care staff in all care settings must have plentiful supplies of PPE and rapid access to testing.
“We also agree with the report’s recommendation that health and care staff will need continued support for their own health and wellbeing. If the enormous mental and physical strain of the past few months is repeated ahead of this winter, the health service will be on its knees.”
(With inputs from Reuters)
