Key Summary
- Prices are anticipated to fall 30-50 percent initially, with the potential for deeper cuts of up to 70-75 percent over time
- Dr Reddy's could be the first generic player among Indian companies to launch in Canada, and Sun Pharma in Brazil
- The launch of generic semaglutide is projected to boost overall Indian Pharmaceutical Market (IPM) growth by 0.5-1 percent
The impending patent expiry of semaglutide drugs, used to treat diabetes and obesity, across India, emerging markets and select regulated markets such as Canada and Brazil, is expected to unlock a huge revenue opportunity, says a report.
The patent is currently held by Danish drugmaker Novo Nordisk and sold under brand names such as Ozempic, Wegovy and Rybelsus.
Semaglutide is a glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) receptor agonist, used to manage type 2 diabetes and chronic weight management.
In India, the patent for semaglutide is set to expire in March 2026, and at least 15 drugmakers are vying to tap the estimated £409 million opportunity over the next 12-15 months, according to Systematix Institutional Research.
The launch of generic semaglutide is projected to boost overall Indian Pharmaceutical Market (IPM) growth by 0.5-1 percent.
They will widen the user base as prices are anticipated to fall 30-50 percent initially, with the potential for deeper cuts of up to 70-75 percent over time.
At present, Alkem Laboratories, Dr Reddy's Laboratories and Sun Pharma have secured regulatory approvals in India, while other players await clearance, the report noted.
Zydus Lifesciences is pursuing a differentiated injectable version, which could offer a competitive edge despite its relatively smaller diabetes franchise, it said.
The other Indian players eyeing this product include Eris Lifesciences, Cipla, One Source Speciality Pharma, Torrent Pharma, Lupin, Ajanta Pharma and Biocon.
Dr Reddy's is planning a rollout of semaglutide across 87 countries next year, with day 1 launches in India and Brazil as patents expire.
Cipla is targeting first-wave launches through a mix of in-house and partner filings. Ajanta Pharma and Emcure have already announced partnerships with Biocon and Novo Nordisk to commercialise semaglutide brands in India and international markets.
In regulated markets, the combined semaglutide market in Canada and Brazil is estimated at nearly $2 billion annually.
The report states that while Dr Reddy's potentially could be the first generic player among Indian companies to launch in Canada, Sun Pharma may be the first-mover in Brazil.
“Other Indian players in the fray for Brazil include Torrent Pharma, Cipla, Zydus Lifesciences and Biocon,” it added.
Assuming a 50 percent price erosion post-generic entry and 50 percent market share capture by generics, the addressable opportunity could be around $500 million.
The boom is expected to benefit ancillary players, such as Shaily Engineering Plastics, a key global supplier of pen devices used in injectable therapies.
