Key Summary
- In the next decade, nearly 170,000 lives could be lost to weight-linked circulatory illnesses.
- Obesity currently affects two in three adults in England.
- BHF urges for a Healthy Food Standard.
Around 45 people are expected to die daily from cardiovascular disease linked to excess weight and obesity in England over the next decade if current trends continue.
From 2026 to 2035, estimates show that nearly 170,000 lives could be lost to weight-linked circulatory illnesses.
The British Heart Foundation (BHF) stated that this loss is equivalent to over twice the capacity of the 2026 World Cup Final stadium.
Currently, rates of overweight and obesity in England remain high, affecting two in three adults, which accounts for 66 per cent of the population.
Obesity remains one of the leading causes of preventable ill health in the UK. It is a significant risk factor for heart and circulatory diseases, as excess weight causes fatty build-up in the arteries, restricting blood flow and increasing the risk of heart attacks and strokes.
It can also raise blood pressure, cholesterol, and the risk of type 2 diabetes - all of which put fatal strain on the heart. Currently, around 1 in 9 cardiovascular deaths in England are attributed to excess weight and obesity every year.
High levels of deprivation across the country and the ubiquity of unhealthy food in everyday life are key drivers of the epidemic.
Foods high in fat, salt, and sugar are more readily available, affordable, and heavily promoted compared with healthier options.
Obesity levels also vary significantly by region. Analysis shows that the Northeast of England has the highest percentage of obese adults at 36 per cent, followed closely by the West Midlands at 34 per cent, whereas London has the lowest rate at 21 per cent.
To address this, the BHF is calling on the UK Government to introduce its Healthy Food Standard (HFS) to incentivise food businesses to improve the nation’s diet.
BHF chief executive Dr Charmaine Griffiths said that the nation is at risk of sleepwalking further into an obesity epidemic which will have dire consequences for decades to come.
She noted that obesity is one of the biggest drivers of cardiovascular disease, so if momentum is not maintained, there could be tens of thousands of families who will lose loved ones needlessly over the next decade, though these deaths are not inevitable.
Dr Griffiths added that while the Government promised a ‘healthy food revolution’, it has yet to materialise.
She emphasised that pledges must become policy sooner rather than later if heart attacks and strokes are to be stopped from robbing thousands of the chance to live a long, healthy life.
Healthy Food Standard
The HFS policy would require businesses to report on the healthiness of their sales and meet Government targets, while allowing flexibility through product reformulation or the promotion of healthier options.
However, one year after the policy's announcement, a formal consultation is yet to be published. The BHF is urging the Government to launch the consultation without further delay to ensure businesses have sufficient time to adapt.
Health experts believe this urgency is compounded by an upcoming change in Prime Minister, which risks leaving the policy vulnerable to political shifts.
These figures are based on data from the Global Burden of Disease Study, which estimates there were 16,156 cardiovascular disease deaths attributable to high BMI in England in 2023, representing a rate of 28 deaths per 100,000 people.
BHF analysts applied this rate to the Office for National Statistics’ (ONS) mid-year population projections for England from 2026 to 2035. This resulted in projected losses of 16,500 to 17,100 lives each year across the forecast period, with the annual death toll expected to rise alongside a growing population.
Recently, the government, along with pharma giant Eli Lilly and Company, has launched the Obesity Pathway Innovation Programme (OPIP), which would use technology to provide advice and support to patients.
