Key Summary
- Researchers Samuel Cross, Karl Claxton, and Andrew Hill warn that the deal has a steep hidden cost.
- Excess deaths are projected to occur among patients suffering from cardiovascular, respiratory, and gastrointestinal diseases, as well as cancers.
- According to the analysis, the cumulative additional cost of the deal will hit £2.6 billion by the end of 2028.
A new analysis warns the UK-US pharmaceutical agreement could result in 229,000 excess deaths by 2036 - surpassing the 137,000 deaths recorded during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Most of these excess deaths are projected to occur among patients suffering from cardiovascular, respiratory, and gastrointestinal diseases, as well as cancer.
The report, published by the British Medical Journal (BMJ), says that the deal would have a high cost on the NHS and projects a heavy impact on cuts to health services in England.
The NHS will be forced to divert approximately £45 billion from essential frontline services over the next decade to absorb the cost of expensive new medicines.
Originally announced by the government on December 1, 2025, the UK-US pharmaceuticals deal was hailed as a “landmark” agreement designed to safeguard medicines access and drive vital investment for UK patients and businesses.
Key provisions of the agreement secured a zero percent tariff on UK pharmaceutical and medical device exports to the US for the next three years.
However, a newly published analysis in The BMJ by researchers Samuel Cross, Karl Claxton, and Andrew Hill reveals a steep hidden cost.
The deal commits the government to doubling the percentage of GDP allocated to innovative therapies - escalating healthcare expenditure on new medicines from 0.3 percent to at least 0.6 percent of GDP by 2036, with interim targets of 0.35 percent in 2028 and 0.4 percent in 2030.
Ultimately, the UK has agreed to pay 25 percent more for new medicines over the next decade.
The deal will also see the health service in England, which currently spends £14.4 billion a year on innovative therapies, double the percentage of GDP it allocates to buying such products, from 0.3 percent to 0.6 percent over the next decade.
The authors argue that diversion of billions of NHS funding to pay more for new drugs under the UK-US trade deal will harm public health and result in thousands of excess deaths.
According to the analysis, the cumulative additional cost of the deal will hit £2.6 billion by the end of 2028, exploding to £44.7 billion by the end of 2036.
These projections worsen drastically if the secondary financial impact on publicly funded adult social care is factored in.
While ministers have previously defended the deal as a critical mechanism to insulate British drug exports from steep US tariffs and accelerate access to cutting-edge therapies, the data highlights an escalating concern among health economists and policy watchdogs regarding the long-term sustainability of community care.
Then science minister Lord Patrick Vallance had earlier confirmed that funding for the recently announced UK-US pharmaceutical deal will be provided through allocations to the Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC), and emphasised that frontline services would be protected.
